Maple Lions

A while back I posted this report from Union Bank of Switzerland that predicted an Italian World Cup win.  Some of their other predictions were a bit off, but did their number-crunching account for what was to many of us the unforeseen offensive strength in Lippi’s side?

The Swiss economists fared better than Four Four Two magazine and the boffins behind Football Manager 2006.  In a series of three computer simulations of the World Cup, England and Germany reached the finals, with England winning twice.

Paul Canniff

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Yes, I told Sven so earlier and with at least as much hindsight as was available to him.

In this SLATE article, Financial Times columnist Tim Harford applies some principles of gaming theory to successful examples of penalty goal strategy. The science is obvious: it’s the sweat and determination which England have to supply by Euro 2008.

Paul Canniff

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Like many of you, I needed some time for recovery and reflection after Saturday’s match. Many will say that we need not care so much about a game. But this game and our team, for all of their faults, bring together so intimately a disparate range of people to share joy, despair and consolation. It is our Distributed England and we will continue to stand by her.

Some of my initial observations:

1. Kudos to Becks for doing vastly more than his departing gaffer, taking some responsibility by resigning as team captain. While there is surely a consensus that this came about two years too late, it was an unexpected act of civility.
2. Sven: classless and unrepentant to the bitter end. Good riddance at last.
3. Sage advice to Cristian Ronaldo: make that rumour come true and decamp to the Bernabeu. The only good thing about earning a lifelong grudge from Wayne Rooney is that you likely won’t live long to fret about it.
4. Pity poor Theo Walcott. His first big trip to the Continent and he couldn’t even have a proper large lager lout evening. Oh yes, and marking the start of his professional footballing career by acting as the team’s boat anchor.

Where do we go from here?

1. Steve McClaren needs to take care in his choice of assistants. His experience in the UEFA Cup with Boro cannot compensate for a lack of understanding competitors’ footballing styles. The FA has its Englishman: let’s get some foreign counsel for real value for money.
2. The new captain? I say John Terry or possibly Stevie Gerrard. The lads need someone with the fortitude to stand up to the gaffer when necessary but as well to lay smack down on his colleagues when justified. And that means a hard man, not a clotheshorse.
3. It had to be shown in brutal terms why Wayne Rooney needs support up front. I would not even put down money that Michael Owen will be coming back soon. So Andy Johnson, step right up. He’s got the skill and the personality to complement Rooney, with Defoe as the prime backup choice. Time to release Lurch back into the wild, though.

Paul Canniff

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According to the Beeb, Sven indeed has a plan, but cunning in his mind alone:

Eriksson was asked point-blank 24 hours before England’s World Cup win against Ecuador in Stuttgart how many formations he had tried in training before settling on Michael Carrick’s return and Wayne Rooney’s lone role up front.

It was a question that was clearly heavily loaded and justifiably prompted by talk that England’s preparations were, to say the least, flexible.

The answer: “One. One.”

In fairness to Sven, there are only so many angles to consider when you have boxed yourself into a corner.

Paul Canniff

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1. While remaining a justifiably bitter critic of his penalty kicking, on this blog I have recognized Becks’ unwavering magic with free kicks.  Yesterday he saved us and I am duly grateful.
2. And thanks as well to Ashley Cole for saving England in the clinch.  A pleasure to see him shine outside the shadow of the Highbury Professor.
3. We need more Aaron Lennon and sooner in the next game.  While his footwork is impressive, his bursts of speed on the pitch are stunning, plain and simple. Opponents facing him will know how a P-51 Mustang pilot felt the first time he encountered an Me-262 jet fighter.
4. Stewart Downing, the Accidental Tourist continues to give me hope.  Clearly, all I have to do is consistently play unremarkable football and I too can get an all-expense paid trip to Germany.
5. While Ecuador made the round of sixteen, their hopes for Oscar glory will go unsated.  I doubt even James Lipton could work up a proper bootlick for this gang of telegraphing whingers.

As for Sven, here it is:  I DARE him to play Theo Walcott against Portugal. My patience is exhausted with what increasingly appears to be Eriksson’s pathetic attempt to flip the bird to the FA by engaging in a ludicrous global spectacle of video dating.  England is suffering from a lack of striking power through injury and managerial incompetence.  This cannot hold.

After Ecuador there is no hope of scraping through by extracting pedestrian one-point wins. Either the kid wows us or makes a right shambles of it, but Rooney needs a real strike partner either upfront or from a close-by midfield feed. Clear the air, Sven.

Paul Canniff 

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Sven switches to a 4-5-1 formation for England’s Sunday match against Ecuador, seeing Michael Carrick join the midfield while Rooney guns upfront, undistracted by the flailing Shambolictron 3000.

It’s a solid response to the loss of Owen and the high risk of elimination. But if we lose Rooney as well, let’s just break out the NyQuil and crisps and sleep soundly through the next two weeks.

Paul Canniff 

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Northern Rock thought to create an ad asking to have Michael Owen back from the World Cup in one piece.  Nice one.

Mike C. 

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This photo was taken at:

a) a Nike photo shoot; or
b) a Rooney family Christmas party.

Damian P.

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Once again three points more likely purchased at the Oxfam Shop rather than Harvey Nichols:

1. Yes, Lurch bagged a goal at 83′ but only after making utter shambles of two beautiful opportunities in the first half.
2. John Terry continues to be England’s ironman, bicycling out a prime T&T shot on goal when Robinson was ahead out of position.
3. T&T served up a surprisingly good defensive line close to goal but continually dropped possession at midfield.
4. While Rooney’s return was a great morale booster, Aaron Lennon’s introduction led to impressive collaboration with Becks.

I’d say England still suffers from the poor in-the-box closing form we saw in the Paraguay match.  At least Eriksson is willing now to innovate with his line and formations.

More analysis at the Beeb, SkySports and the Telly.

Paul Canniff

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From a script for “Footballers’ Wives” to the pages of the Telly:

In the heat of their first World Cup encounter, England’s footballers started well but faded fast. Yesterday, their wives and girlfriends put on a performance of stamina and spending power that showed England have a team to take on the world - at shopping. 

Six of them went on a spree in Baden-Baden, where the England squad is based, buying more than £3,000 worth of designer clothes in an hour.

Coleen McLoughlin, 20, the girlfriend of Wayne Rooney, led the charge, buying Gucci shoes and a Dolce and Gabbana shirt from Monika Scholz, the most expensive boutique in the German spa town.

Five others, including Ellen Rives, 29, the wife of Frank Lampard, and Carly Zucker, the girlfriend of Joe Cole, followed, splashing out on sunglasses next door. They then paid a further £1,500 for shoes and shirts in 10 minutes.

The old rule holds:  too much skin, too little taste.

Paul Canniff

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